Betting Underdogs in Baseball

Most square bettors tend to ride the favorites more often than they bet on an underdog in baseball. The average joe sees the team that is supposed to win and looks at the other team as the one who is supposed to lose. Losing is no fun so it’s tough for some players to realize it can be profitable to lose more games than you win as long as your return on each bet is greater than your risk.

The real key to being successful if you are going to bet on baseball is to find value. Value is the difference between the price you are getting with the odds and the true chances of a team winning. For instance, if you think a team has a 50% chance of winning a game and you are getting +110 on the team, that’s a great bet and you should make your wager. If you are getting -110 on that team, that means you have a negative expectation and should not. See how money line conversion chart so you know what percentage chance a team has to have of winning before they make a good bet.

Last Five Year’s Results

Going back the last five years combined you will find the following results for underdogs and favorites:

Favorites: 7,378-5,507 (57.3%) Avg. Line = -144
Underdogs: 4,421-6,288 (41.3%) Avg. Line = 138.4

*Notice some games both teams are laying minute (-) numbers because they are close games

With the 57.3% winning percentage you would have to get odds of -134 on each game just to break even. The true odds were closer to -144 so you can see the 10 cent expected loss on each favorite.

On the other hand if you won only 41.3% of your games you would only need to get odds of +142 to show a profit. The true odds were 138.4 for a difference of 3.6, a lot less than with the favorite but still not profitable.

You can see if you stick to underdogs you are ahead of the game, but you can’t bet them blindly because you will still end up behind. So let’s take a look at situation where it favors you to back the underdog.
Divisional Underdogs

Underdogs in divisional games were 1966-2741 (41.8%), but with an average line of 139.3. You only need to get odds of 139.2 for this system to be blindly profitable. So if you see underdogs in divisional games, lean towards taking that team.

This works best in a certain sweet spot, that is, divisional underdogs between +106 and +154 off of a win. Since 2004, this system has an ROI (return on investment) of +2.9% for +$7,964 (based on $100 per wager).

Divisional underdogs coming off of a win have an ROI of +2.9% for +$7,964, based on $100 per wager!

Off a High Scoring Game

Another situation you want to look to back the dog is when a team is coming off a high scoring game. If a team scored 10 or more runs the previous night and is the underdog that team is 180-242 (42.7%) over the past five years but with odds of 137.5. You only need odds of 134.2 to show a profit so this is a very good system.

Those are two automatic situations where I’m going to look to back the team that is getting a positive return on my investment. I’ll also lean towards underdogs when handicapping a game with an extra focus on who is hot over the last seven games and which favorites have struggled during the past week. Try to find bad teams that do well in certain situations like against right or left-handers, at home or on the road, or against a particular starter and you’ll find yourself having a profitable summer.

Check out our complete MLB handicapping guide for more ways to beat the books this baseball season.

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3 Players to Watch on Day 6 of the 2014 World Cup

Unfortunately, it couldn’t last forever; there has finally been a goalless game during the 2014 World Cup. However, forget about the 0-0 draw between Iran and Nigeria. Tuesday is set to be an action-packed day in Brazil.

Group H finally gets underway, and it starts in the Estadio Mineirao in Belo Horizonte as Belgium face Algeria.

After that, hosts Brazil play their second game of the tournament against Mexico in Fortaleza.

The final fixture of the day sees Russia take on South Korea at the Arena Pantanal in Cuiaba as we complete the first set of group matches on Tuesday evening.

But who are the players to watch on Day 6 of the World Cup? Here, we provide six key men to look out for on Tuesday.

Eden Hazard, Belgium

They have gone from hipster country of choice to dark horses to a team mentioned so much that they can’t be called dark horses. Now, if Belgium are to achieve anything at this World Cup, they need to get the best out of Chelsea’s Eden Hazard.

After breaking through with Lille OSC in Ligue 1, the 23-year-old winger has come on in leaps and bounds during his two years in the English Premier League, especially this season, with the help and guidance of Jose Mourinho.

According to WhoScored, in his debut season, Hazard scored nine times and added 11 assists. Then under Mourinho, with more responsibility on his shoulders, the Belgian scored 14 goals with seven assists. He definitely showed more maturity, as well as an ability to take over a game and impose his will when they needed it most.

WhoScored picks out dribbling, passing, finishing and key passes as his main characteristics, and you would be mad to argue with them. However, Hazard’s excellent play in club football has yet to be replicated for his country.

During the 44 caps, he has only found the back of the net six times. Also, his all-round play and contributions have been nowhere near as effective as when he plays for Chelsea, or even Lille when he was younger.

Riyad Mahrez, Algeria

In January, French-born winger Riyad Mahrez swapped the west coast of France with the Midlands of England, completing a move that took him from Ligue 2 side Le Havre to Championship contenders Leicester City.

Now only six months later, the 23-year-old is set to complete a magnificent season by making his debut at the FIFA World Cup for Algeria.

Since moving to Leicester, Mahrez has managed to settle quickly, and as Maher Mezahi of The Telegraph reports, he quickly won a place in Nigel Pearson’s first team.

A main player in Leicester’s ascension has been January acquisition Riyad Mahrez. Since arriving from Le Havre, the Algerian winger has displaced the dependable Lloyd Dyer and made the right flank his own. His contribution of three goals and four assists has not gone unnoticed.

Mahrez declared interest in playing for Algeria back in November; the winger also possesses French and Moroccan citizenship but chose the Desert Foxes, perhaps with the World Cup in mind.

He ended his first club season in England by helping Leicester City seal promotion back to the Premier League, and the Foxes fans have been delighted with his direct style, combined by his beautiful balance and skill on the ball.

In just 12 starts (with seven substitutions), Mahrez attempted 51 shots, 34 key passes and 30 successful dribbles, according to WhoScored.

Now, he has a chance to shine for his country, and he will be hoping to continue the unpredictable trend at this World Cup by shocking Belgium on Tuesday.

Whether he is given a start by Vahid Halilhodzic or makes an impact off the bench, Mahrez will cause the Belgian back line a whole host of problems. The European side are not very comfortable in the full-back position, and Mahrez could be their worst nightmare.

Ramires, Brazil

An injury to Zenit St. Petersburg striker Hulk is set to give a starting place in the Brazil team to Chelsea midfielder Ramires on Tuesday.

Hulk exited Sunday’s training session after just 15 minutes when he felt something in his leg and left the field, according to The Associated Press. After sitting on the bench with a look of dismay, he then retired to the locker room. He now faces a race to be fit for Tuesday’s Group A match against Mexico, but it could also give Luiz Felipe Scolari the chance to make a slight tactical change to the side that beat Croatia 3-1 on Thursday.

Brazil’s back four looked vulnerable down both channels, as the full-backs failed to get any protection from their attacking team-mates. Scolari could move to playing a 4-3-3 formation, with Ramires coming in to play on the right side of the midfield trio.

The move would give more protection to right-back Dani Alves, allowing the Barcelona defender to play a more attacking role without leaving a huge hole at the back. The Chelsea player would also bring vibrancy and drive from midfield and could give the Brazil attack more balance against the Mexicans.

Speaking before the tournament began, Ramires knows just how important this tournament is to the people of Brazil, reports Andres Garavaglia via Sky Sports.

I think the question of winning is everywhere. Every game that Brazil is going to play, we have the pressure to win it.

Because of this we’re all quite anxious, all of the players. But they’re all experienced and they have worked through difficult times in their careers before.

If Scolari gives Ramires the chance to strengthen the Brazil midfield, it is clear that the Chelsea man will give his all to make sure his country doesn’t falter so early in the competition. A win over Mexico would all but confirm the hosts’ place in the last 16.

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Messi or Ronaldo, who will score big in World Cup 2014?

One is the world’s best known footballer, the other the most valuable. They have scored the same number of Champions League goals and are loaded down with titles. But superstars Cristiano Ronaldo and Lionel Messi are stuck in a World Cup dead end.

Between them Messi and Ronaldo have monopolised the past six world player of the year awards. But each have attended the last two World Cups and failed to even get near the trophy. Messi has scored just one goal at the finals, Ronaldo only two.

Now though the weight of Argentinian hopes rests on Messi’s slight shoulders. Portugal are desperate for Ronaldo’s goals to get out of one of the most difficult groups in the contest.

The Brazil World Cup could finally decide whether the name of Messi or Ronaldo is etched into football legend alongside the Peles and Diego Maradonas and Zinedine Zidanes. It is the competition which transforms reputations.

The soft-spoken Messi is 26, just 1.69 metres (5ft 7inch) tall and 67 kilogrammes (148 pounds) in weight. But his goalscorer record and brilliance pack the same weight as the 29-year-old Ronaldo – 1.85m (6ft 1inch) and 80kgs (176 pounds) – who revels in his glamour lifestyle.

Messi capture three Champions League wins with Barcelona while Ronaldo responded by adding a crown for Real Madrid last month to his earlier success with Manchester United.

Both average more than 50 goals a year in all competitions for their clubs.

Ronaldo is the world’s most recognisable and marketable footballer, according to the Repucom, a sports marketing research company.

But Messi remains the world’s most valuable footballer on the market, according to the Swiss-based CIES Football Observatory. It put the Argentine’s value at €216 million ($294 million), while because of his age Ronaldo was worth just €114 million.

Reaching Pele Heights
The case for the elevation of Messi and Ronaldo to the almost deified heights of Pele and Maradona would surely be unanswerable were either to lift the trophy on July 13 in Rio.

“Both players are incredibly great athletes and both have outstanding qualities. Both can win a match in their club or national team on their own,” said Ottmar Hitzfeld, the respected German coach who will be in charge of Switzerland at the World Cup.

But the World Cup, high pressure over one month, is vastly different from the Spanish league and Champions League duties which Messi and Ronaldo so brilliantly execute week in, week out.

Maradona is adamant that “Messi doesn’t have to win the World Cup to be the best in the world.”

For the 1986 world champion, “one world title more or one less can’t take anything away from anything (Messi) has achieved to be where he is today.”

With Messi having enjoyed a less than stellar campaign with Barcelona this season – and having seen Ronaldo take the Fifa Ballon d’Or for the world’s best player away from him – the World Cup is his chance to crown a loaded career trophy haul.

Ronaldo, in contrast, comes into the World Cup on the back of Real’s first Champions League win in 12 years – though his exploits have taken a toll as he struggles with thigh and knee problems.

Yet none other than Pele has in recent months spoken of how he believes Ronaldo is now even more effective than Messi.

Judging players from different eras is an impossible task, but Pele says he could have been even better had referees given strikers the protection they get in the modern game – a point which could equally be applied to Maradona.

“In my day we just didn’t have the same protection as there is today. I reckon with today’s rules I could have scored 1,000 goals more,” opined Pele, who famously netted a tally of 1,281.

Even a World Cup coronation for Messi or Ronaldo will not entirely end the debate – the Portuguese famously said two years ago of their rivalry that “you cannot compare a Ferrari with a Porsche because it’s a different engine.”

But it would remove the main argument of those who maintain that until either man captures that missing trophy they cannot elbow Pele and Maradona aside.

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San Antonio Spurs vs. Miami Heat – 2014 NBA Finals, Game 4, June 12, 2014 Betting Preview and Prediction

The Spurs needed something special to finally deal the Heat their first home loss of the playoffs, and they certainly provided it in a record-breaking first half to seal a 111-92 Game 3 win. Can LeBron James and the Heat respond in Game 4 or will their bid for a three-peat be in serious jeopardy?

Miami Heat vs. San Antonio Spurs NBA Finals, Game 4 Betting Preview
Series Scores & Schedule

Game 1 – June 5, Miami 95 at San Antonio 110

Game 2 – June 5, Miami 98 at San Antonio 96

Game 3 – June 10, San Antonio 111 at Miami 92

Game 4 – June 12, 9:00 PM ET, San Antonio (+5) at Miami (-5); total 197.5 – view all NBA lines

Game 5 – June 15, 8:00 PM ET, Miami at San Antonio

Game 6 (if necessary) – June 17, 9:00 PM ET, San Antonio at Miami

Game 7 (if necessary) – June 20, 9:00 PM ET, Miami at San Antonio
Betting on the San Antonio Spurs

When the Spurs are locked in offensively, they’re basically unbeatable. San Antonio was most definitely firing on all cylinders in Game 3, as they scored 71 points and shot an NBA Finals record 75.8% in the first half of a comfortable 111-92 win. The Spurs have now scored 110 or more points in 10 playoff games; they’re 9-1 SU in those games.

While the Spurs likely won’t shoot as hot again, the signs point to them continuing to have their way with the Heat defense. Gregg Popovich finally switched up his starting lineup, inserting Boris Diaw in place of Tiago Splitter to better counter the Heat’s perimeter-oriented starting five. It definitely had its desired effect, as Diaw’s excellent passing contributed to the Spurs’ 41-point first quarter.

Another very good sign is the revival of Kawhi Leonard, who scored a career-high 29 points on 10-for-13 shooting after scoring just 18 in the first two games combined. Leonard also had a slow start in last year’s finals, but averaged 16.6 PPG, 10.8 RPG on over 57% shooting in the next five games. If Leonard keeps chipping in with his points, the Spurs will be in a great position to claim Game 4.

The Spurs are 4-1 SU/ATS in their last five games.

Betting on the Miami Heat

The Heat defense couldn’t handle the Spurs’ otherworldly offense in Game 3, but Miami’s own offense has also been running smoothly against San Antonio. The Heat are shooting over 50% from the field and over 43% from beyond the arc while hitting 10 threes per game through the first three games.

LeBron James (27.3 PPG) and Dwyane Wade (18.3 PPG) have been getting their points in this series, while Rashard Lewis (9-for-18 3PFGs in the series) has kept taking and making the open looks being given to him.

The other third of the Big Three, Chris Bosh, had a silent nine points after consecutive 18 point games. Coach Erik Spoelstra likely won’t allow Bosh to have less shot attempts than Mario Chalmers again like he did in Game 3 and should devise more looks for his sweet-shooting big man.

On defense, expect a response from James to prevent another Leonard explosion and for Spoelstra to make some necessary tweaks to counter the Spurs’ rejiggered lineup. James and the Heat know how to respond well after tough defeats, which is why they haven’t lost consecutive games for 48 straight playoff games.

Miami is 8-1 SU/6-3 ATS at home in the playoffs, with the total going over in eight of those nine games.
Writer’s Prediction

The Spurs’ shooting cools down considerably, while James responds with an all-around game at home. Take Miami to cover -5 in Game 4.

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World Cup 2014 betting preview

This summer sees the 2014 World Cup take place in Brazil, beginning with the opening game on 12th June and ending with the World Cup final on 13th July. It is the 20th World Cup tournament to be staged, the second to be held in Brazil (following on from the 1950 World Cup), and the fifth finals to be held in South America, adding to the tournaments held in 1930, 1950, 1962 and 1978. We take a look ahead at the tournament to give you all the facts, figures and information that you need.

Venues

There are twelve stadiums of various sizes that will play host to matches in this year’s World Cup, from the 78,838 capacity Estadio do Maracana in Rio de Janeiro to the 42,086 Arena das Dunas in Natal. Six of the stadiums are brand new and were built specifically for this tournament, while the remaining six were renovated in order to bring them up to FIFA standards. The cities that have been awarded the privilege of hosting World Cup games are Belo Horizonte, Brasilia, Cuiaba, Curitiba, Fortaleza, Manaus, Natal, Porto Alegre, Recife, Rio de Janeiro, Salvador and Sao Paulo.

World Cup Groups

The twelve stadiums will play host to 64 football matches in total, 48 in the group stage and 16 in the knockout stages. In the group stage, the 32 qualifying teams will be split into eight groups of four and the teams in each group will play each other once, with the top two teams progressing to the next round. Finishing top of the group will be seen as a big bonus for most teams and will help improve their 2014 World Cup betting odds as it will see them face a runner-up in the next round and thus have a theoretically easier tie.

From a World Cup betting perspective, group D looks to be the most interesting of all the groups as it contains three strong teams that are among the leading teams in the outright 2014 World Cup betting odds. Meanwhile, group B sees the 2010 finalists go head to head while group G contains Germany and Portugal, two of the favourites in the World Cup odds.

Knockout Rounds

The knockout stages begin on 28th June and are played with a sudden death format that will see a game go to extra-time if it cannot be decided in 90 minutes and then to penalties if it is still level after the additional half an hour. Teams must progress through three of these sudden death rounds in order to reach the ultimate goal, the 2014 World Cup final. These rounds are likely to provide some exciting live betting and will be one of the best times to bet on World Cup 2014.

World Cup Betting Favourites

At the time of writing, the World Cup odds suggest that there are four teams that appear to be the most likely to lift the famous trophy. As the host nation and the most successful team in the history of the World Cup, Brazil are currently favourites to win the World Cup and, with the home crowd behind them, they will be a very difficult side to beat. Argentina are second favourites in the 2014 World Cup betting and, with the likes of Lionel Messi and Sergio Aguero in their side, they look a big threat to claim their first World Cup triumph since 1986. Germany have been in great form over recent years and seem to be getting better each year, perhaps one of the reasons that the World Cup odds have them as third favourites. Finally, holders Spain are considered fourth favourites for the trophy as they look to become the first team since Brazil in 1958 and 1962, and only the third team ever, to win back to back World Cups.

Best of the Rest

Aside from the four favourites, there are a few other teams that look capable of making an impact in Brazil and might be worth focussing on if you want to bet on World Cup 2014. Belgium may be playing in their first World Cup since 2002 but they are currently 14/1 in the World Cup betting and look like they could go far this summer. Boasting a talented young squad with players like Eden Hazard and Romelu Lukaku, Belgium were impressive in qualifying and are ranked as the 11th best team in the world in the latest FIFA rankings.

In addition to Spain, France and Italy look to be two of the best prospects from Europe, although Italy’s chances will be affected by how well they perform in their tough group. Meanwhile, after disappointing at Euro 2012, the Netherlands are considered relative outsiders but, as they showed in 2010, they have the potential to upset those World Cup odds and go far in the tournament.

Since only two teams have ever won a World Cup outside of their own continent, the South American teams might be the best option for those who want to bet on World Cup 2014. Obviously, Brazil and Argentina are the two big contenders from that continent but Colombia and Uruguay could also be a threat as they boast some of the finest attacking talents in world football. Colombia are led by Radamel Falcao and he will be crucial to their chances in Brazil. Meanwhile, Uruguay are spearheaded by Diego Forlan and the often controversial Luis Suarez, meaning they have one of the best striking partnerships around.

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Bayern Munich-Manchester United Preview

The England international missed his side’s weekend win at Newcastle with a toe injury but is reportedly winning his battle to be fit for the trip to Bavaria

Manchester United travel to Germany hopeful of upsetting the odds and reaching the Champions League semi-finals at the expense of holders Bayern Munich.

The clubs have enjoyed contrasting fortunes domestically this season, with Bayern having already retained their Bundesliga title while English champions United languish seventh in the Premier League table.

But while all-conquering Bayern were expected to sweep David Moyes’ team aside in the first leg of their quarter-final at Old Trafford last Tuesday, a spirited display from the Red Devils secured a 1-1 draw to take to the Allianz Arena – and they head into this game with all the momentum.

Bayern are without several central options through injury and suspension and were beaten for the first time in 18 months on Saturday, while United are the best away side in the English top flight and thrashed Newcastle at the weekend.

Bayern’s 1-0 setback at Augsburg ended their record 53-match unbeaten run in the Bundesliga. Guardiola shrugged off the defeat, but described the second leg with United as a “life or death match”.

By contrast, United were dominant in a 4-0 win at St James’ Park on Saturday, though Juan Mata, who scored twice, is ineligible in Europe.

Striker Robin van Persie misses out again with a knee injury and Wayne Rooney is doubtful with a bruised toe, though Patrice Evra is back from a ban and should be fit despite going off against the Magpies.

Bastian Schweinsteiger scored Bayern’s goal in the first leg but misses out here after picking up a late red card at Old Trafford. Die Roten are also without Javi Martinez through suspension, while Thiago Alcantara is sidelined with a knee problem and Xherdan Shaqiri (thigh) will also miss out.

But despite the weekend’s results and Bayern’s injuries, Guardiola’s side should be regarded as heavy favourites to progress.

United have endured a tricky first campaign under Moyes, who replaced the legendary Sir Alex Ferguson last July, with the club now mathematically certain to relinquish their Premier League title as they sit 17 points adrift of leaders Liverpool with five games to play.

They also look likely to miss out on qualification for the Champions League for the first time since 1995-96, as they are seven points behind fourth-placed Arsenal.

Moyes has been under severe pressure in recent weeks, especially following humbling defeats at Olympiakos and at home to Liverpool and Manchester City. Some supporters even organised and paid for an aeroplane to fly over Old Trafford urging the club’s board to sack the Scot.

And Bayern, despite their loss at the weekend, have continued to flourish under Pep Guardiola’s guidance, with the Bavarians wrapping up the German title with seven matches to spare, while they remain on course to retain both their Champions League and DFB-Pokal crowns.

Schweinsteiger’s away goal also puts Bayern in the driving seat to reach the semi-finals, with United needing to win or record a high-scoring draw of 2-2 or higher on the night.

However, United left-back Evra believes his side can emulate Chelsea’s 2011-12 season, when the London club finished sixth in the Premier League but won the Champions League.

“It was funny because the season reminded me of the Chelsea season when they won the Champions League when they were not playing well in the league,” Evra told reporters.

“I am not saying we are going to do the same but sometimes you have to be positive, so why not?

“Of course it is unusual for us to say we can save our season in one game. Now we must make sure the fans will be proud for the second leg against Bayern.”
Manchester United travel to Germany hopeful of upsetting the odds and reaching the Champions League semi-finals at the expense of holders Bayern Munich.

The clubs have enjoyed contrasting fortunes domestically this season, with Bayern having already retained their Bundesliga title while English champions United languish seventh in the Premier League table.

But while all-conquering Bayern were expected to sweep David Moyes’ team aside in the first leg of their quarter-final at Old Trafford last Tuesday, a spirited display from the Red Devils secured a 1-1 draw to take to the Allianz Arena – and they head into this game with all the momentum.

Bayern are without several central options through injury and suspension and were beaten for the first time in 18 months on Saturday, while United are the best away side in the English top flight and thrashed Newcastle at the weekend.

Bayern’s 1-0 setback at Augsburg ended their record 53-match unbeaten run in the Bundesliga. Guardiola shrugged off the defeat, but described the second leg with United as a “life or death match”.

By contrast, United were dominant in a 4-0 win at St James’ Park on Saturday, though Juan Mata, who scored twice, is ineligible in Europe.

Striker Robin van Persie misses out again with a knee injury and Wayne Rooney is doubtful with a bruised toe, though Patrice Evra is back from a ban and should be fit despite going off against the Magpies.

Bastian Schweinsteiger scored Bayern’s goal in the first leg but misses out here after picking up a late red card at Old Trafford. Die Roten are also without Javi Martinez through suspension, while Thiago Alcantara is sidelined with a knee problem and Xherdan Shaqiri (thigh) will also miss out.

But despite the weekend’s results and Bayern’s injuries, Guardiola’s side should be regarded as heavy favourites to progress.

United have endured a tricky first campaign under Moyes, who replaced the legendary Sir Alex Ferguson last July, with the club now mathematically certain to relinquish their Premier League title as they sit 17 points adrift of leaders Liverpool with five games to play.

They also look likely to miss out on qualification for the Champions League for the first time since 1995-96, as they are seven points behind fourth-placed Arsenal.

Moyes has been under severe pressure in recent weeks, especially following humbling defeats at Olympiakos and at home to Liverpool and Manchester City. Some supporters even organised and paid for an aeroplane to fly over Old Trafford urging the club’s board to sack the Scot.

And Bayern, despite their loss at the weekend, have continued to flourish under Pep Guardiola’s guidance, with the Bavarians wrapping up the German title with seven matches to spare, while they remain on course to retain both their Champions League and DFB-Pokal crowns.

Schweinsteiger’s away goal also puts Bayern in the driving seat to reach the semi-finals, with United needing to win or record a high-scoring draw of 2-2 or higher on the night.

However, United left-back Evra believes his side can emulate Chelsea’s 2011-12 season, when the London club finished sixth in the Premier League but won the Champions League.

“It was funny because the season reminded me of the Chelsea season when they won the Champions League when they were not playing well in the league,” Evra told reporters.

“I am not saying we are going to do the same but sometimes you have to be positive, so why not?

“Of course it is unusual for us to say we can save our season in one game. Now we must make sure the fans will be proud for the second leg against Bayern.”

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City to beat Cardiff with many

Nine wins with 31 goals scored in total is what Manchester City, probably the strongest team in the Premier League at the moment has achieved in their last ten matches. Today they welcome the struggling for its survival Cardiff in a match of the 22nd round of the championship.

Before we talk a bit more about this match it is important to mention that Cardiff is one of the four teams so far which managed to beat Manchester City in the league. The Welsh took the victory from the Citizens with 3-2 on 25 August, when they managed to turn the score from 0-1 to 3-1 in the second half.

However, do they have any chance on Saturday afternoon at the Etihad Stadium? You will hardly find anyone to say that their chances are particularly large, given the options Manchester City has in the attack and their desire to win with as many goals as possible.

That’s why when we do our betting prediction for the match it seems better not to think which of the two teams would win, but with how many goals the home side will win this match. This can be even seen in the proposed by the bookmakers odds, where a Citizen’s win is the most highly suggested by William Hill – 1.14. bet365 and bet-at-home offers respectively 1.13 and 1.12.

If we look at the Asian handicap market offered by bet365, we will see that the proposal for the victory of Manchester City with margin of -3 is estimated with odds of 3. If we look at the statistics of City’s home matches with teams from the bottom half of the table, we find that Manchester City have played with three teams of Cardiff’s caliber so far and they have managed to beat that margin twice. This makes a success rate of 66%, which when multiplied by odds of 3 makes it a very promising bet.

Of course, this is a risky bet that has enough chances to be a loser, but at least at first glance it seems sufficiently justified so we can easily bet on it some euro.

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Volleyball betting with bet365

Volleyball is one of the major sports offered for betting by the bookmaker bet365. They offer more than 20 different types of bets for each match of the major championships or tournaments. Moreover, bet365 offers very good live betting options for volleyball, which should be carefully considered, as they offer a pretty good chance for winning.

Apart from this, another advantage that the bookmaker offers to its clients is the opportunity to watch the game live on their website, which gives additional chances for betting at the right time of the match.

What kind of live bets on volleyball matches can we do with bet365? Firstly, there is an option to bet on the winner of the match and the points scored by both teams together and separately.

Furthermore, we are able to place a bet on the winner each game, as well as who will be the winner of a game of predefined margin to one or the other of the teams. Another option is to bet on how many total points will be scored by both teams in the respective game and whether the game will reach extra points or not.

A very interesting opportunity for betting offered by bet365 concerns the exact difference, with which one of the two teams will win the set. The possibilities for winning the set are combined in groups like the win to come with 2, 3-4, 5-7, 8-11 and 12 or more points. Also, bet365 offers an option to bet on the exact result in the set and the odds for this bet are more than impressive. The average coefficient for these bets is over 13, which makes them really attractive and also allows different combinations.

The last bet from bet365 offered for live betting on volleyball is whether the total points scored by both teams will be an odd or an even number.

Thanks to the large number of statistics for volleyball available on the internet, which is also very easy to analyze, a developing of successful betting system is not impossible at all. Of course, it is a hard work, but at least it is easier to find one on volleyball than on football.

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What to do if the bookie refuse to payout

One of the most common questions on the internet asked by bettors around the world is connected with the relationship between bookmakers and punters and who guarantees the rights that the users of various bookmakers have. It is quite often a player to dispute a decision of a bookmaker about a winning bet. So, who will decide if the bookie or the player is right?

The answer to these questions is related to the work of a few independent organizations that settle disputes and guarantee the protection of customers’ rights in events of enforcement of the rules and conditions set by the betting companies on their sites.

One such independent organization is IBAS, which is the guarantor of the work of hundreds of bookmakers around the world, including some of the biggest companies like bet365 and William Hill.

One of the main objectives of IBAS is to maintain and update a list of correct bookmakers, thus helping the punters when they choose with which bookmaker to register and use for their betting. By keeping this list the organization has an impact instrument over the bookies. If IBAS upholds the right of a player to the claim of the bookmaker and the bookie does not fulfill the requirements of IBAS, then its name will be removed from the list, which would be a clear sign to all punters worldwide that the bookmaker may be incorrect to their clients.

However, it is important to note that IBAS is an organization that ensures compliance with the rules of the bookmaker written with details on their websites, but it is not an organization whose task is to help or benefit the customers of bookmakers in any way.

Each bookmaker, including bet365 and William Hill must clearly mention how their clients may contest the decision of the bookmaker to IBAS. Furthermore, the organization has a 24/7-telephone line through which the procedures for challenging the decision of the bookmaker can be explained in details.

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It’s Not Too Early to Assess Baseball Betting Strategy; It’s Not Too Late for Kentucky Derby Betting Action

We’re only about four weeks into the MLB season but that’s not too early for savvy baseball betting practitioners to review data, assess their early moves, and see if they need to plot a new strategy for the remaining five months of the season.

Unlike football betting and basketball betting, which operates with a pointspread, baseball betting is conducted with a money line, meaning that while sportsbooks can attempt to balance their action by adjusting the price, they are powerless to affect the outcome of the wager; the team that wins the game also is the winning side in the baseball betting agreement between bet maker and bet taker.

Interestingly, with roughly 15 percent of the regular season in the record books, a scenario familiar to football betting and basketball betting fans is emerging on the baseball diamond: Teams that are winning on the field are the same teams rewarding bettors at the windows.

Through Friday, April 25, the team with the best straight up (SU) record on the field, the Milwaukee Brewers at 17-6, also had the best Return On Investment, or ROI, at +44.0 percent. What that means is that if a gambler wagered the same amount on the Brewers in every one of Milwaukee’s games, after only 22 games, their bankroll would be fatter by 44 percent.

Milwaukee hardly is an anomaly. Atlanta, which is 15-7 SU, has an ROI of +31.2 percent; Oakland, 15-8 SU, has an ROI of +15.0 percent; and Texas, 14-9 SU, boasts an ROI of +16.2 percent. In fact, of the 12 teams with winning SU records, nine of them also are making money for baseball betting enthusiasts.

There are 13 teams in Major League Baseball that have losing SU records through the first four weeks of the season and 12 of the 13 also have negative ROI figures. At the bottom are Arizona, 8-18 SU with an ROI of -37.6 percent; the Chicago Cubs, 7-15 SU, -32.8 percent ROI; Pittsburgh, 9-15 SU, -26.0 percent ROI; and Houston, 7-17 SU, -23.5 percent ROI. The remaining five teams in the league were at .500 SU through April 25.

Looking deeper into the numbers, Milwaukee has boosted bettors by winning nine of 10 road games, an incredible ROI of +93.3 percent. The Brewers also are 8-1 as an underdog for an ROI of +97.8 percent.

Atlanta also has been strong on the road (+38.1 percent ROI) and terrific as an underdog (+97.1 percent ROI).

It’s still painfully early in the season but both Milwaukee and Atlanta seem to have staked their ground on pitching. Twelve of the Brewers first 23 opponents scored two runs or fewer and only five foes were able to score more than four runs in a game. Meanwhile, the Braves have held opponents to two of fewer runs a dozen times and haven given up more than four runs on just four occasions.

Not surprisingly, 16 of Milwaukee’s 23 games have gone under the total while Atlanta’s over/under record is 8-13-1.

Will these trends continue? Baseball betting fans certainly hope that is the case.

Kentucky Derby: With favorites prevailing just five-of-34 times since 1980, you can’t blame an erstwhile Kentucky Derby betting fan who tries to beat California Chrome in the 140th running of the Run for the Roses, at Churchill Downs, in Louisville, Saturday.

The only thing wrong with California Chrome, who has won all three of his starts this year in impressive fashion, will be his price. Destined to be the favorite, it would not be shocking if California Chrome, the winner of the Santa Anita Derby, falls prey to any number of factors, including traffic problems in a bulky 20-horse field, a bad post position, bad racing luck, an unexpected pace, rainfall that produces a sloppy or muddy track surface, et al, that have denied 29 favorites of donning a garland of red roses in the last 34 years.

So, while savvy horse racing betting devotees may see value in California Chrome, punters who rarely get involved in the sport except on special occasions such as the Kentucky Derby, understandably, may be searching for a bit more of an odds bang for their seldom used bucks.

Wicked Strong, the winner of the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct, probably will be the second choice in the wagering. He looks like a colt who may relish the mile and one-quarter distance of the Derby but the price won’t be right for longshot players.

Those hoping to find longer odds will have to take a shot on Danza, Dance With Fate, Intense Holiday, Vicars in Trouble, General a Rod, Wildcat Red, Medal Count or some other outsider. As in life, horse racing betting favors the bold.

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